A CALL TO CROATS IN AMERICA TO VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP – POZIV HRVATIMA U AMERIKI DA GLASAJU ZA DONALDA TRUMP

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An invitation to Croats in America who can vote to vote for Donald Trump!

Donald Trump je na putu da Bidena pobijedi s većom razlikom nego H. Clinton

Donald Trump is on track to beat Biden by a bigger margin than H. Clinton

The positive trend in the polls shows that Donald Trump on election day could achieve not only a convincing electoral victory, but also get the most majority of all votes.
For the next ten days, the whole world will follow the elections for the White House, which will take place on November 3, with increased attention. Who will win – Biden or Trump? It is a “million-dollar question” that is being debated on television, analyzes in newspapers write, and it is hotly debated on social networks.
As expected, everyone has an opinion on this and wants to contribute to the “dialogue of humanity” on a matter that seems to leave no one indifferent – who will be the most powerful man in the world?
Hence, it is not surprising that, with such high emotional roles and in an atmosphere of heightened passions, attitudes about it go to irreconcilability. Thus, we see how two camps were formed, where each camp has its own, completely separate, parallel images of reality. It is a situation reminiscent of that experiment in which the number 6 is drawn on the floor of the room, which the one on the other side of the room sees as 9. If there was real dialogue, they would soon realize that both are right from their angle.
The irony is that social networks, instead of being a global arena in the exchange of opinions, only reinforce this exclusivity and bury people even more in ideological trenches. They, as a rule, connect us with people of similar beliefs and attitudes, so we get closed virtual communes of like-minded people who encourage each other in exclusivity and stupidity, and not a dialogical situation that would encourage us to learn from like-minded people. Nothing could ever be learned from like-minded people anyway, because we know that every coin has its own face and reverse.
The matter is not made easier by the traditional media either, which in this situation have mostly decided to agitate in favor of the left-wing candidates. That is why complaints about “fake news” are constantly coming from the opposite camp. But, this situation is also a kind of blessing for the right because that is how they get a broader picture of reality.
Namely, the right sees what they see, but they also see what the left sees, because that image is transmitted to them by the media. The left, on the other hand, is deprived of this broader perspective precisely because the media confirms their picture of reality and thus keeps them locked in an ideological “bubble”. It is this broader perspective that is the reason why the right option is potentially victorious, because an idea that closes itself in a pen and separates itself from reality cannot win.
That’s why we’ve had situations, like Trump’s first victory or Brexit, where the left is surprised to see the world crumbling before their eyes, and then they come up with the full force of excuses to explain their despair and short-sightedness. If it were enough to agree to the ruling dogma for the success of an idea, chameleons and parrots would be the smartest animals.
There is a whole continent of reality that the left does not see at all. In order not to get into a situation of global astonishment and massive nervous breakdown on the left again, let’s look for a moment at how things around the American elections look from that wider angle, which is completely invisible to many today.
So here I will try to at least exhaustively state a part of that reality which speaks in favor of how Trump is on the way to achieve a victory over Biden with a bigger difference than against Hillary Clinton, which the media does not normally convey to us. The extent to which the Democrats fully rely on the power of the media is evident from the fact that Biden almost does not hold rallies and does not have a field campaign. So, every now and then we have a situation where his campaign announces a “break”, while Biden sends messages to supporters mostly from the basement of his house.
It looks as they had thrown all the cards on the Crown epidemic, hoping that the country would be quarantined, so they did not even form field work teams, but their plan failed, so they were left without a door-to-door campaign. On the other hand, we see huge enthusiasm at large rallies organized by Trump across the country, usually several of them in one day.
Interestingly, a quarter of the people at these rallies were not registered Republicans, while the same number did not vote in the 2016 election at all. Trump’s campaign managed to mobilize a record 2.5 million volunteers, who by mid-October alone had already knocked on 100 million doors, from of which 12 million in countries that are key to winning the electoral majority.
These are two completely different approaches to the campaign, one that relies on the media and the other on fieldwork. In the last elections there were a lot of undecided voters, while in this election their number is almost negligible, about 1.5%. So, most voters have already decided who they will vote for, so persuasion will not have much effect. These will be elections in which motivation and drawing one’s own to the polls will decide, and not the content, so it is clear which of these two approaches is more adapted to reality.
Many rely on surveys in their analyzes, but we know that surveys can be misleading and give the wrong picture if we look only at the numbers. First of all, the question is how many of the respondents will actually go to the polls? There is also the problem of so-called hidden Trump voters, who are assumed to be 5-10%, who out of fear do not want to say who they will vote for or deliberately deceive the pollsters, but will go to the polls.

Therefore, the numbers in the surveys should not be given as much importance, but trends should be looked at. And what the trends show us is very similar to the replay of the situation we had in 2016. So, in a poll conducted by Investor’s Business Daily, which was one of two polls that accurately predicted the results of the last election, we see that two weeks before the election there was almost settlement between Trump and Biden.
Namely, while only a week ago the survey showed Biden’s advantage of 8.6%, now that advantage is only 2.3%, which is within the statistical error. A similar trend of melting differences is shown by other surveys. The situation is now even more favorable for Trump, as he entered the positive trend a week earlier than in the last election. This tells us that on election day, Trump could not only achieve a convincing electoral victory, but also get a majority most of all votes.
Winning the votes of the majority most of voters is important to Trump in order to thwart plans to challenge the election results, for which the play has already been prepared. That is why we now see how he invites his voters to go out in the so-called “Blue” states, such as California, where they usually abstain. At the same time, some other indicators should not be neglected, which again support Trump.
Americans traditionally prefer the re-election of the current president, with a much more important view of the bank account than ideology. While Democrats have thrown all the cards at ideology and fear of the coronavirus, Trump still holds the lead in terms of economics. So over half of Americans, 56%, say they live better today, under Trump and the coronavirus, than they did four years ago, when Obama and Biden were at their peak.
Biden’s commitment to raising taxes is not in his favor, because, as a rule, he who promises higher taxes always loses. It should also be borne in mind how corona crisis makes people conservative and skeptical of major interventions in the economy. Thus, Biden’s statement that the oil industry “must be replaced” by a green industry did not resonate well among “rusted belt” voters, especially in Pennsylvania, where a “dead race” is taking place, and without conquering that country, Biden’s chances of victory are close to zero.
In addition to getting your voters to the polls, it is important to demotivate the voters of the other side. So Trump has made a big shift among minority voters, who overwhelmingly vote for Democrats. Statistics with the so-called early voting in Michigan and Pennsylvania speaks to the low turnout of African Americans, as well as the rise of black male votes for Trump. With the already recorded collapse of Latino votes for Biden, this also makes his chances of winning very pale.
Many think the lack of strong Obama support played a crucial role here. He recently appeared in Philladelphia, but then went to a rally in Florida, which has already been lost to Biden, leading to the conclusion that Obama is not campaigning for Biden, whom he has probably already written off, but is supporting Senate and Congress candidates. , thus, preparing the ground for the 2024 elections and the almost certain presidential candidacy of his wife Michelle.
It should be mentioned that the sky also is interfered in the elections, so Trump is certainly in favor of the election of a new judge of the Supreme Court on the eve of the elections. It is speculated that her choice could add some percentage of support for Trump by women from the suburbs, among whom Trump does not stand the best.
Finally, Biden’s prospects in this election could be complicated by increasingly scandalous evidence of his family’s corruption, which has come to light in recent days, despite desperate attempts by the media and social media to censor the news.
These are some of the main reasons why I think we will see not only a repeat of the 2016 elections, but also Trump’s overwhelming victory in this election as well. If anyone has missed any of these reasons so far, they should therefore prepare for another four long years of Trump’s second term.

Borislav Ristić / Večernji list

                                            Hrvatski
Pozitivan trend u anketama pokazuje kako bi Donald Trump na dan izbora mogao ostvariti ne samo uvjerljivu elektorsku pobjedu, već i dobiti većinu svih glasova

Narednih desetak dana čitav će svijet s povišenom pozornošću pratiti izbore za Bijelu kuću, koji će se održati 3. studenog. Tko će pobijediti – Biden ili Trump? To je “pitanje za milijun dolara” o kojem se vode rasprave na televiziji, pišu analize u novinama, žučno diskutira na društvenim mrežama.

Kao što je i očekivano, svatko o tome ima neko svoje mišljenje i želi dati svoj doprinos “dijalogu čovječanstva” o stvari koja, izgleda, nikoga ne ostavlja ravnodušnim – tko će biti najmoćniji čovjek na svijetu?

Otuda ne čudi što, kod tako visokih emotivnih uloga i u atmosferi povišenih strasti, stavovi o tome idu do nepomirljivosti. Tako vidimo kako su se formirala dva tabora, gdje svaki tabor ima svoje, potpuno odvojene, paralelne slike stvarnosti. To je situacija koja podsjeća na onaj eksperiment u kojem se na podu sobe nacrta broj 6, koji onaj na drugoj strani sobe vidi kao 9. Kada bi bilo stvarnog dijaloga oni bi ubrzo uvidjeli kako su i jedan i drugi u pravu iz svog kuta.

Ironija je u tome da društvene mreže, umjesto da budu globalna arena u razmjeni mišljenja, samo pojačavaju ovu isključivost i ljude još više zakopavaju u ideološke rovove. One nas, po pravilu, povezuju s ljudima sličnih uvjerenja i stavova, pa tako dobijamo zatvorene virtualne komune istomišljenika koji se međusobno potiču u isključivosti i gluposti, a ne dijalošku situaciju koja bi nas potaknula da učimo od neistomišljenika. Od istomišljenika se ionako nikad ništa nije moglo naučiti, jer znamo da svaka kovanica ima svoje lice i naličje.

Stvar ne čine lakšom ni tradicionalni mediji, koji su se u ovoj situaciji mahom odlučili za agitaciju u korist kandidata ljevice. Zbog toga iz suprotnog tabora stalno stižu pritužbe za “fake news”. Ali, ta situacija za desne predstavlja i svojevrsni blagoslov, jer oni tako dobijaju širu sliku stvarnosti.

Naime, desni vide to što vide, ali vide i ono što vide lijevi, jer im tu sliku prenose mediji. Lijevi su, pak, lišeni te šire perspektive upravo zato što im mediji potvrđuju njihovu sliku stvarnosti i tako ih drže zatvorene u ideološkom “balonu”. Upravo je ta šira perspektiva razlog zbog kojeg je desna opcija potencijalno pobjednička, jer ideja koja sebe zatvara u tor i odvaja od stvarnosti ne može pobijediti.

Zbog toga smo imali situacije, poput prve Trumpove pobjede ili Brexita, u kojoj se lijevi iznenade kada vide kako im se svijet ruši pred očima, a potom smišljaju čitavu silu izgovora kako bi objasnili svoj očaj i kratkovidnost. Kada bi za uspjeh neke ideje bilo dovoljno pristati na vladajuću dogmu, kameleoni i papige bi bile najpametnije životinje.

Postoji čitav jedan kontinent stvarnosti koji lijeva strana uopće ne vidi. Kako ne bismo opet došli u situaciju globalnog iščuđavanja i masovnog nervnog sloma na ljevici, pogledajmo na trenutak kako stvari oko američkih izbora izgledaju iz tog šireg kuta, koji je danas mnogima potpuno nevidljiv.

Zato ću ovdje pokušati bar taksativno navesti dio te stvarnosti koja govori u prilog tome kako je Trump na putu da ostvari pobjedu nad Bidenom s većom razlikom nego protiv Hillary Clinton, a koju nam mediji inače ne prenose. Koliko se demokrati u potpunosti oslanjaju na moć medija vidljivo je već iz toga što Biden gotovo da i ne drži skupove i nemaju terensku kampanju. Tako svako malo imamo situaciju u kojoj njegova kampanja oglašava “stanku”, dok Biden poruke pristalicama uglavnom šalje iz podruma svoje kuće.

Kao da su sve karte bacili na epidemiju korone, nadajući se kako će zemlja biti u karanteni, pa nisu ni formirali timove za terenski rad, ali im se taj plan izjalovio, pa su ostali bez kampanje “od vrata do vrata”. S druge strane vidimo ogroman entuzijazam na velikim skupovima koje organizira Trump širom zemlje, po pravilu nekoliko njih u jednom danu.

Zanimljivo je kako jedna četvrtina ljudi na tim skupovima nisu registrirani republikanci, dok isto toliko njih nije uopće glasalo na izborima 2016. Trumpova kampanja je uspjela mobilizirati rekordnih 2,5 milijuna volontera, koji su samo do sredine listopada već pokucali na 100 milijuna vrata, od čega 12 milijuna u državama koje su ključne za osvajanje elektorske većine.

Radi se o dva potpuno različita pristupa kampanji, jedan koji se oslanja na medije, a drugi na terenski rad. Na prošlim je izborima bilo jako puno neodlučnih birača, dok je na ovim izborima njihov broj gotovo zanemarljiv, oko 1,5%. Dakle, većina birača je već odlučila za koga će glasati, pa uvjeravanje neće imati puno efekta. Ovo će biti izbori u kojima će odlučivati motivacija i izvlačenje svojih na birališta, a ne sadržaj, tako da je jasno koji je od ova dva pristupa prilagođeniji stvarnosti.

Mnogi se u svojim analizama oslanjaju na ankete, ali znamo da ankete mogu obmanuti i davati pogrešnu sliku, ako gledamo samo brojke. Prije svega, pitanje je koliko će od anketiranih stvarno i izaći na izbore? Tu je i problem tzv. skrivenih Trumpovih glasača, kojih je po pretpostavci 5-10%, koji se iz straha ne žele izjasniti za koga će glasati ili pak namjerno obmanjuju anketare, ali će izaći na birališta.

Stoga samim brojevima u anketama ne treba pridavati toliki značaj,već treba gledati trendove. A ono što nam pokazuju trendovi jako liči na reprizu situacije koju smo imali 2016. godine. Tako u anketi koju provodi Investor’s Business Daily, a koja je bila jedna od dvije ankete koje su točno predvidjele rezultate prošlih izbora, vidimo kako je dva tjedna prije izbora došlo skoro do poravnanja između Trumpa i Bidena.

Naime, dok je samo prije tjedan dana anketa pokazivala prednost Bidena od 8,6%, sada je ta prednost tek 2,3%, što je unutar statističke pogreške. Sličan trend topljenja razlike pokazuju i ostale ankete. Situacija je sada još povoljnija za Trumpa, jer je u pozitivan trend ušao tjedan dana ranije nego na prošlim izborima. To nam govori kako bi Trump na dan izbora mogao ostvariti ne samo uvjerljivu elektorsku pobjedu, već i dobiti većinu svih glasova.

Osvajanje glasova većine birača je Trumpu bitna kako bi osujetio planove oko osporavanja izbornih rezultata, za što je igrokaz već pripremljen. Zato sada vidimo kako on poziva svoje birače da izađu i u tzv. “plavim” državama, poput Kalifornije, gdje oni obično apstiniraju. Pritom ne treba zanemariti i neke druge pokazatelje, koji opet idu u prilog Trumpu.

Amerikanci tradicionalno daju prednost reizboru aktualnog predsjednika, pri čemu im je puno važniji pogled na račun u banci od ideologije. Dok su demokrati sve karte bacili na ideologiju i strah od korone, dotle Trump drži prednost po pitanju ekonomije. Tako preko polovice Amerikanaca, njih 56%, kaže kako danas, pod Trumpom i koronom, bolje žive nego prije četiri godine, kada su Obama i Biden bili na vrhuncu.

Bidenovo zalaganje za dizanje poreza ne ide mu u prilog, jer po pravilu uvijek gubi onaj tko obećava veće poreze. Također treba imati u vidu i kako koronakriza ljude čini konzervativnima i skeptičnim prema velikim zahvatima u ekonomiji. Tako Bidenova izjava kako naftna industrija “mora biti zamijenjena” zelenom industrijom, nije dobro odjeknula među glasačima “pojasa hrđe”, naročito u Pennsylvaniji, u kojoj se vodi “mrtva utrka”, a bez osvajanja te države Bidenove šanse za pobjedu se približavaju ništici.

Osim izvlačenja svojih birača na birališta važno je i demotivirati birače druge strane. Tako je Trump napravio veliki pomak među manjinskim glasačima, koji većinski glasaju za demokrate. Statistike s tzv. ranog glasanja u Michiganu i Pennsylvaniji govore o slaboj izlaznosti Afroamerikanaca, kao i porastu glasova crnih muškaraca za Trumpa. Uz već evidentirani kolaps latino glasova za Bidena, to njegove izglede za pobjedu također čini jako blijedim.

Mnogi misle kako je izostanak snažne Obamine podrške tu odigralo presudnu ulogu. On se nedavno pojavio u Philladelphiji, ali je nakon toga otišao na skup u Floridi, koja je za Bidena već izgubljena, što navodi na zaključak kako Obama i ne agitira za Bidena, koga je vjerojatno već otpisao, već daje podršku kandidatima za senat i kongres, čime priprema teren za izbore 2024. i gotovo izvjesnoj predsjedničkoj kandidaturi svoje žene Michelle.

Treba spomenuti kako se u izbore i nebo umiješalo, pa Trumpu svakako ide u prilog i izbor nove sutkinje Vrhovnog suda uoči samih izbora. Pretpostavlja se kako bi njen izbor mogao dodati koji postotak podrške Trumpu od strane žena iz predgrađa, među kojima Trump ne stoji najbolje.

Konačno, Bidenove izglede na ovim izborima bi mogli zakomplicirati i sve skandalozniji dokazi o korupciji njegove obitelji, koji zadnjih dana sve više izlaze na vidjelo, unatoč očajničkim pokušajima medija i društvenih mreža da te vijesti cenzuriraju.

To su neki od glavnih razloga zbog kojih mislim kako ćemo i na ovim izborima gledati ne samo reprizu izbora 2016., već i premoćnu pobjedu Trumpa. Ako su kome neki od tih razloga dosad promakli, treba se, dakle, pripremiti na još četiri duge godine Trumpova drugog mandata.

Borislav Ristić / Večernji list

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